Updated: Oct. 25 | 5:50 p.m. EDT

Wellstone’s death casts new uncertain pall over fight for Senate

By CHUCK RAASCH
Gannett News Service Political Writer

WASHINGTON – For the second straight national election, the tragic death of a Senate candidate in a plane crash just a few days before the vote has thrown an uncertain pall over the politics to come.

Liberal Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone’s death Friday in a plane crash in northern Minnesota was eerily reminiscent of the Oct. 16, 2000 death of Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, also a Democrat who was then seeking a Senate seat.

Carnahan’s death in a crash south of St. Louis led to unprecedented events in American elections.

Wellstone’s death could do the same.

Before dying with his wife, a daughter and five others in Friday’s plane crash near Eveleth, Minn., the former college wrestler was locked in a tight fight for re-election with former St. Paul, Minn. Mayor Norm Coleman.

It was one of a handful of Senate races around the country that were expected to determine which party controls the chamber after the Nov. 5 elections.

Control of the Senate is crucial because several key initiatives of President George W. Bush are stalled there, including more tax cuts and a cabinet-level Department of Homeland Security. With Democrats in control of the Senate committees, some of Bush’s judicial appointments also have been blocked.

Republicans had long viewed Minnesota as a prime target to pick up a seat from the Democrats and thereby regain the Senate in 2003. But Wellstone had appeared to gain momentum recently.

Minnesota Secretary of State Mike Hatch said state law allows Democrats to name a replacement for Wellstone up to four days before the election. Wellstone’s name would be blotted out of current ballots by county auditors and the replacement put in, Hatch said. Absentee ballots already sent in for Coleman will be counted, but not for Wellstone. New absentee ballots sent out would reflect any replacement named by Democrats, Hatch said.

Figuring out the political consequences of a replacement is a dicey proposition at this point. After Carnahan’s death, some analysts had a hard time believing voters would cast their ballots for a dead candidate, but they proved to be wrong. And the Republican candidate at the time, Sen. John Ashcroft, had problems finding the right tone and timing for a campaign in the wake of such a tragedy.

With Wellstone’s death, Democrats have 49 senators and Republicans have 49. But because Independent Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont votes with the Democrats on organizational matters, that still gives the Democrats a one-seat edge. Jeffords’ defection from the GOP last year made Tom Daschle of South Dakota the Senate majority leader.

Recently, national Democrats had thought their chances of retaining the Senate improved with the withdrawal of embattled Sen. Robert Torricelli, D-N.J., earlier this month. Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg has taken his place on the ballot, and has surged ahead in polls against Republican Doug Forrester.

That prompted Democrats and Republicans to shift focus to Minnesota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado and New Hampshire as the prime Senate battlegrounds.

It’s ironic that Missouri is one of those states. Carnahan’s plane crash two years and eight days ago also altered a Senate race immensely and eventually helped Democrats take control of the Senate. Carnahan’s wife, Jean, was appointed by Missouri’s Democratic governor after the 2000 election to serve until this year’s special election to fill the term.

Even before Wellstone’s death, the outcome of the Missouri Senate race could have put an immediate wrinkle on Senate control.

If Republican Jim Talent defeats Jean Carnahan in Missouri (the race there is very close), Talent could immediately be sworn in and not have to wait until January like the rest of the senators elected Nov. 5.

The reason: After Mel Carnahan died in 2000, his name remained on the ballot in Missouri and he posthumously defeated incumbent John Ashcroft. But because Jean Carnahan was appointed, the winner in the Nov. 5 election will be sworn in immediately.

That means that starting Nov. 6, the Republicans could again control the Senate and push legislation stalled there by Democrats.