Updated Nov. 5 | 11:15 p.m. EST

Talent-Carnahan contest closer than most, but others have more quirks

By PAMELA BROGAN
Gannett News Service

WASHINGTON - The contest between Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan and Republican challenger former Rep. Jim Talent is one of about 10 election races that will determine control of the U.S. Senate.

Some race results may not be final for weeks because of recounts, challenges to razor-thin victory margins and a possible runoff in Louisiana. Control of the Senate may switch between Democrats and Republicans more than once before the new Congress is seated.

With the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone, D-Minn., on Oct. 25, it looked as though the battle for control of the Senate couldn't get murkier.

But it did. On Monday, Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura appointed fellow Independent Dean Barkley to temporarily fill Wellstone's seat, leaving the Senate split 49-49 with two independents.

"There are no precedents for this just one day before an election, " said Donald Ritchie, associate historian of the Senate. "There's nothing that stands up in the history books."

It is uncertain how long Barkley will serve before the winner of the Minnesota Senate race - either former Vice President Walter Mondale, a Democrat, or the former mayor of St. Paul, Norm Coleman, a Republican - is seated. Because of that fact, and because of unusual election circumstances in Missouri, Louisiana and Alaska, the lame-duck session of Congress set to begin Nov. 12 could flip-flop between Democratic and Republican control.

A victory for Talent could temporarily tip the balance of power in the Senate, even if other election results allow Democrats to maintain control in January.

Talent could be sworn in as soon as the race is certified and would not have to wait until January, like most new senators.

That's because the Talent-Carnahan race is a special election. Carnahan was appointed to her seat after the voters elected her late husband, former Gov. Mel Carnahan, posthumously after he was killed in a plane crash in October 2000.

The race is a dead heat and it could be weeks before voters know the outcome. Under Missouri law, candidates who lose by less than 1 percent of the vote have seven days to request a recount.

Carnahan will retain her seat as long as votes are being counted, according to Spence Jackson, spokesman for Missouri Secretary of State Matt Blunt.

The winner must be certified by Blunt, a Republican and the son of Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Strafford, and then by Democratic Gov. Bob Holden.

Jackson said that the race should be certified by county clerks and his office within seven to 10 days, assuming there are no voting irregularities. Jackson estimates it could take two weeks to tally the votes in the event of a recount.
Missouri law is unclear on when Holden must certify the election, but the governor has said he would act as quickly as possible.

State Democratic and Republican Party officials are gearing up to avoid election missteps.

"What happened in Florida is not going to happen in Missouri," predicted Michael Kelley, executive director of the Missouri Democratic Party.

"If it's going to be a close race, we would exhaust all avenues, " said Scott Baker a spokesman for the Missouri Republican Party. "We are prepared for everything and anything."

An uncertain outcome in Louisiana's Senate race - an open primary contest where all comers are welcome - also clouds the balance-of-power question for the upcoming lame-duck session.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu, who is running against other Democrats as well as several Republicans, is unlikely is receive 50 percent of the vote. That would mean a runoff election on Dec. 7.

In Alaska, Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski is running for governor in a close race. If he wins, he may appoint his own successor five days after he is sworn in as governor on Dec. 2.

Eight other states also feature Senate races that are too close to call. Those states are:

- Minnesota, where the race between Mondale and Coleman is considered a tossup.

- South Dakota, where Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson is defending his seat against a challenge by Republican Rep. John Thune. The race is viewed as a surrogate fight between President Bush, who handpicked Thune, and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D.

- Georgia, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland faces a tough challenge from Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss.

- Arkansas, where Democratic Attorney General Mark Pryor could upset incumbent Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson.

- Colorado, where incumbent Republican Sen. Wayne Allard of Colorado is struggling against former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland, a Democrat.

- North Carolina, where Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Erskine Bowles are vying for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Jesse Helms.

- New Hampshire, where former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is in a tight race against Republican Rep. John Sununu.

- Texas, where former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, a Democrat, is battling John Cornyn, the Republican state attorney general.