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Updated Nov. 5 | 8:30 p.m. EST
A primer on what to watch on Election Night
By CHUCK
RAASCH
GNS Political Writer
WASHINGTON - A season of uncertainty ends Tuesday
with the votes of millions of Americans. As polls close through
the time zones, a few contests are leading indicators of whether
the Republicans or Democrats have advantages in Congress and in
state capitals.
Here's a primer of what to watch for based on poll
closings beginning with Indiana and Kentucky, and ending with Alaska:
6 p.m. EST: Two races for the House
of Representatives should give an early hint as to whether the Republicans
hold on or the Democrats regain control they lost in 1994.
In Indiana's 2nd District that includes South Bend,
Democrat Jill Long Thompson and Republican Chris Chocola are locked
in one of the handful of House tossups. In Kentucky's 3rd District
that includes Louisville, Republican Anne Northup, an incumbent,
appears to have a slight advantage over Democratic challenger Jack
Conway. If Conway is winning, it could be a long night for the GOP.
7 p.m. EST: This is the hour when
the Republicans first find out if they take back the Senate. Republicans
hope Rep. Saxby Chambliss can upset Democratic Sen. Max Cleland
in Georgia. A half dozen extremely close Senate races will follow
in later hours.
This hour will also give early hints on governor's
races, with South Carolina and Vermont closing their polls. They
are among the closest in the nation. About half of the 36 governor's
races around the country are close.
7:30 p.m. EST: Watch the results
of a race between Rep. Shelly Moore Capito, R-W.Va., and Democrat
Jim Humphreys, for further indication of who holds control of the
House when the dust clears on Wednesday.
8 p.m. EST: All eyes will initially
be on Florida after its Panhandle polls close. Will we see more
voting controversies reminiscent of 2000? Is incumbent Gov. Jeb
Bush in trouble against surprise Democratic challenger Bill McBride?
Close governor's races in Massachusetts, Alabama,
New Hampshire, Kansas and Maryland will give a clearer picture of
whether Republicans hold onto the majority of governorships. The
GOP now has 27 governor's chairs. This hour will also determine
whether women, who are running for governor in nine states, do well
in 2002. Democratic women are on the ticket in Massachusetts, Kansas
and Maryland, and they all start reporting this hour.
The fight for the Senate gets clearer with New Hampshire,
New Jersey and Missouri reporting in. In Texas, former Dallas Mayor
Ron Kirk, a Democrat, is trying to become the first black person
elected to the Senate from that state. He faces GOP Attorney General
John Cornyn.
And look for a House trend: One of four incumbent
versus incumbent races, set up by redistricting after the 2000 Census,
pits Democrat Tim Holden against Republican George Gekas in Pennsylvania's
17th District, which includes Harrisburg. A tossup in northern Maine
between Republican Kevin Raye and State Senate Leader Mike Michaud
in the 2nd District is also worth watching to see if Republicans
hold their current 223-208 margin (three seats are vacant and one
is held by an independent who votes with the Democrats).
8:30 p.m. EST: In Arkansas, Democrat
Attorney General Mark Pryor's challenge of incumbent Sen. Tim Hutchinson
may be Republicans' biggest Senate worry.
9 p.m. EST: This is the hour that
will tell whether it will be a relatively early night for political
junkies or one that stretches into the wee hours, a la 2000. Tossup
Senate races in Colorado, South Dakota and Minnesota will report
their results, and if they are too close to call, the outcome of
the Senate may not be known until the next day - or even later.
Louisiana, where Republicans are trying to force incumbent Democratic
Sen. Mary Landrieu into a December runoff, also ends its voting
at this hour.
In Minnesota, this will be when we'll begin to know
whether former Vice President Walter Mondale or Republican Norm
Coleman will be going to the Senate.
Close House races in Colorado's new 7th District in
the Denver suburbs, Minnesota's 2nd District in the Twin Cities'
suburbs and South Dakota's at-large district will be reported. If
the GOP wins at least two of the three, Republicans may be on their
way to expanding their narrow House majority. If Democrats are to
gain control of the House, they almost certainly have to win all
three.
Tight governor's races in Wisconsin, Wyoming and Rhode
Island also start reporting returns.
10 p.m. EST: Call this Iowa Hour.
It has three close House races: The 1st District in the Eastern
part of the state has Democrat Ann Hutchinson against Republican
incumbent Jim Nussle. The 2nd District in the state's southeastern
corner pits GOP Rep. Jim Leach vs. Democrat Julie Thomas. The 3rd
District, including Des Moines, has Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell
against Republican Stan Thompson.
If Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is losing to Republican challenger
Doug Gross, it may put an exclamation on a long night for Democrats.
If the Democratic incumbent is winning, it could be an exclamation
point for his party.
11 p.m. EST: Two governor's races
are of interest in California and Hawaii. Democrat Gov. Gray Davis
is trying to survive a nasty race with Republican Bill Simon. Linda
Lingle is trying to become Hawaii's first Republican governor against
Democrat Mazie Hirono.
Midnight-1 a.m. EST: Alaska ends
it with a surprisingly close governor's race between Democratic
Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer and Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska.
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