Added Nov. 5

Senate races down to the wire, hinge on voter turnout

By CHUCK RAASCH
GNS Political Writer

WASHINGTON — Republicans appear poised to take Senate seats from Democrats in South Dakota and Missouri Tuesday, and Democrats look like they may gain a seat in Arkansas, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll released Sunday.

But the races are so close that most remain within the polling margin of error, making it extremely difficult to predict which party will control the Senate after the elections. Democrats and Republicans each have 49 seats, but Independent Jim Jeffords of Vermont votes with Democrats, giving that party control. There is one vacancy.

Colorado respondents slightly favored Republican incumbent Wayne Allard in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll, but that also was within the margin of error. In a separate poll USA TODAY conducted with CNN and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, Republican Rep. John Sununu had a very narrow edge over Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in that state's Senate race, but it also was within the margin of error.

Elsewhere, the Minnesota Senate race remains very volatile in the aftermath of Sen. Paul Wellstone's death on Oct. 25. His Democratic replacement, former Vice President Walter Mondale, led by 5 percentage points in a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll released Sunday, but Republican challenger Norm Coleman was up by 6 percentage points in a St. Paul Pioneer-Press poll, also released Sunday. Both polls were taken Wednesday through Friday.

Democrats concede there was a public backlash to the political overtones of Wellstone's funeral on Tuesday that cut heavily into Mondale's advantage.

And Democrats on Sunday conceded that incumbent Sen. Max Cleland, D-Ga., was in a tight contest with Rep. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.

In New Jersey, a Gannett poll released Sunday had former Sen. Frank Lautenberg at 42 percent and his Republican challenger Doug Forrester at 37 percent, with the rest undecided, voting for someone else or refusing to answer. The poll also had a margin of error of plus of minus 4 percentage points and was taken from Wednesday through Sunday.

Lautenberg replaced Sen. Bob Torricelli, D-.N.J., on New Jersey's ballot last month when Torricelli dropped his re-election bid under an ethics cloud.

Democrats were trying to overcome a lead by former Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina by concentrating on getting out the vote, especially among blacks. But GOP strategists were increasingly confident that Dole would win.
In a separate survey released Sunday, the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press said the race for the House of Representatives is so close that no national trend toward either party is apparent.

The outcome of who controls the House after Tuesday's elections could boil down to the effectiveness of both parties to get out the vote, state by state. Republicans currently have a 223-208 advantage, with one independent and three vacancies previously held by Democrats.

And there is evidence the voter turnout campaign on both sides is massive. A third of those surveyed by Pew said they had already been contacted by get-out-the-vote operations and that those contacts were also split between Democrats and Republicans.

The USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll surveyed more than 600 likely voters in each of four key Senate states from Thursday through Saturday. The margin of error in each state is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Here is a state-by-state look:

• Arkansas: Democrat attorney general Mark Pryor led incumbent Sen. Tim Hutchinson, a Republican, 51 percent to 43 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
  Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Republican, led challenger Jimmie Lou Fisher, 55 percent to 40 percent. President Bush's approval rating there is at 64 percent. Economic conditions and the candidate's character were the top two issues on voters' minds (23 percent each), followed by Social Security and Medicare (19 percent) and a possible war with Iraq (13 percent).
  
  
• Colorado: Allard , a Republican who narrowly won six years ago, was ahead of Democrat Tom Strickland, 47 percent to 45 percent, USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll. There were 8 percent undecided.
  Republican Gov. Bill Owens led by nearly 2-1 over his Democrat challenger Rollie Heath - 62 percent to 32 percent. Bush's approval rating in Colorado is 60 percent. Top issues in the state: Economy (32 percent); possible war with Iraq (19 percent); Social Security and Medicare (14 percent); terrorism (12 percent).
  
  
• Missouri: Former Republican Rep. Jim Talent led Democratic incumbent Sen. Jean Carnahan 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided in that Senate race. Bush's approval rating was 63 percent. Economic conditions also topped voters concerns in Missouri, with 26 percent naming it. Then 18 percent cited Social Security and Medicare, 16 percent the candidates' experience, and 12 percent the possibility of war with Iraq.
  
  
• South Dakota: Republican Rep. John Thune had 48 percent in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup survey to 45 percent for incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson. Libertarian Kurt Evans got 2 percent, with 5 percent undecided. In the governor's race, Republican Mike Rounds had a commanding, 54 percent to 40 percent lead over Democrat Jim Abbott. Six percent were undecided. Bush's approval rating in South Dakota was 73 percent. He made his fifth campaign trip to the state Sunday night.
  

Economic conditions were cited as the top concern by 21 percent of South Dakotans surveyed. The possibility of war with Iraq was the top worry of 17 percent, followed by Social Security and Medicare (16 percent), and health care (13 percent).
In its survey on New Hampshire, USA TODAY and CNN found that Sununu had edged back to a 46-45 advantage over Shaheen, after Shaheen had enjoyed a 4-point spread in surveys taken between Oct. 23-29.

Economic conditions were also the biggest concern in New Hampshire (23 percent) followed by Social Security and Medicare (16 percent) and war with Iraq (15 percent).
In the Pew survey of 1,035 likely voters taken Wednesday through Saturday, 46 percent said they lean toward voting for Democrats in House races Tuesday, compared with 44 percent who leaned toward Republicans.

Nearly one in 10 respondents in the Pew survey said they had already cast ballots. Political parties have intensified their absentee ballot operations, and some states have relaxed laws regarding early voting.

Pew Director Andrew Kohut said the results Tuesday virtually ensures "a narrow advantage for the party that controls the next Congress."