Added Nov. 5

Senate political control remains up in the air

By DENNIS CAMIRE
Gannett News Service

WASHINGTON — With only a day before voters go to the polls, the struggle for political control of the Senate has become murkier than ever.

Whether Democrats or Republicans will lead may not be known for weeks because Louisiana's Senate race may to go into a Dec. 7 runoff, tallying mail and absentee ballots in some states may take days, and legal challenges may be launched in a number of close races.

Until the recent death of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, the Senate was split among 50 Democrats, one independent who votes with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans. Republicans could gain control with a shift of one seat and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Dick Cheney.

Although 34 Senate seats are up for election this year, control of the Senate comes down to about 14 competitive races. Up to 10 are too close to call. Most analysts are unwilling to predict which party ultimately will win control though they say it will be by only one to three seats.

"It's very tight right now," said Jennifer E. Duffy, an analyst with The Cook Political Report. "This is just one more sign of the fact that we live in a 50-50 nation."

Late last week the Cook report increased the number of Senate races too close to call from eight to 10. The Rothenberg Political Report also bumped its number of tossup races from six to seven.

"I'm clueless," said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst of campaigns and elections. "It seems to me that this cycle, instead of clearing up a lot of questions, the campaigns have ended up posing new ones."

By the end of Election Day across the country, many Senate votes might not yet be counted, according to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. Most will be from Oregon's statewide mail balloting, but millions of absentee votes in California and Washington and up to half the Senate ballots in Minnesota also may be uncounted.

With so many close Senate races, both parties also are taking steps to prepare for recounts, controversies over who can vote and legal challenges. Teams of lawyers will be on the scene in states such as Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, and South Dakota.
The count could yield a Senate with 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, one independent - and one Louisiana seat still up in the air.

That's because Louisiana is the only state that treats its November election as an open primary. To win, a candidate must take more than 50 percent of the vote. If no one wins, the top two vote-getters meet in a Dec. 7 runoff.

Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., faces three primary Republican challengers - GOP Rep. John Cooksey; state Rep. Anthony Perkins of Pride, La.; and Louisiana Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell - and five lesser-known candidates.

Several recent polls have placed Landrieu in the mid-40 percent range, making a runoff appear likely.

When the lame-duck session begins Nov. 12, Senate control could change hands several times before the next Congress is sworn in in January.

Wellstone's death left 49 Democrats, one independent who votes with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans.

But these scenarios are possible:

• If Republican Norm Coleman wins in Minnesota against former Vice President Walter Mondale, Senate control could immediately switch to Republicans. Under Minnesota law, Wellstone's replacement will be sworn in immediately to fill the remaining months of the deceased senator's current term.
  
• Sen. Jean Carnahan, D-Mo., is actually running in a special election this year for the remaining four years of her late husband's term. She was appointed to her seat after her husband, Mel, was killed in a plane crash in October 2000, and his name remained on the ballot. Carnahan and former Republican Rep. Jim Talent are locked in a heated race that most analysts say is too close to call. The winner will take the Missouri seat for the lame-duck session, and if it's Talent, switch political control to the GOP.
  
• Sen. Frank H. Murkowski, R-Alaska, is running for governor. If he wins, he must give up his Senate seat before his Dec. 2 swearing-in ceremony. As governor, he would name his Republican replacement but must wait five days before doing so.
  If the lame-duck Congress is still meeting during those five days, Republicans - even if they gained one seat from either Minnesota or Missouri to control the Senate - would again revert to minority status.